Fear of a second wave (we already had 6 and counting…)

Posted by Juan fernandez on 7 de septiembre de 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic hit us hard all over the world. Islands are a suitable model for the study of their dynamics due to their quasi-isolation (even more during lockdown). During the first wave we studied the dynamics of the epidemics in the balearic islands and explored different scenarios for the risk of a second wave. The model we used is a typical SEIR model in a metapopulation context with recurrent mobility of agents. We were able to assess not only the risk of a secondary wave, but also the parameters of the model and the fraction of infected individuals that had gone unseen by the health monitoring system.

Risk of secondary infection waves of COVID-19 in an insular region: the case of the Balearic Islands, Spain

VM Eguíluz, J Fernández-Gracia, JP Rodríguez, JM Pericàs, C Melián

Frontiers in medicine 7, 905