The COVID-19 pandemic hit us hard all over the world. Islands are a suitable model for the study of their dynamics due to their quasi-isolation (even more during lockdown). During the first wave we studied the dynamics of the epidemics in the balearic islands and explored different scenarios for the risk of a second wave. The model we used is a typical SEIR model in a metapopulation context with recurrent mobility of agents. We were able to assess not only the risk of a secondary wave, but also the parameters of the model and the fraction of infected individuals that had gone unseen by the health monitoring system.
VM Eguíluz, J Fernández-Gracia, JP Rodríguez, JM Pericàs, C Melián
Frontiers in medicine 7, 905